This polling average was created using data from the FiveThirtyEight polling github page. The polls were weighted by pollster rating, poll methodology (eg online vs. live phone), and the population that was polled (likely voters, registered voters, all voters). An exponential decay formula was also applied to smooth out the data, the idea being that a raw polling average is overly aggressive at detecting minor and fleeting fluctuations. The exponential decay function eliminates some of this noise and provides a better idea of overall trends. For the sake of comparison, a similar average can be seen at Real Clear Politics.
Please allow a few moments to load.