Credentials
- Master’s of Applied Statistics and Analytics, Data Science Emphasis from the University of Kansas
- Udemy Certifications:
- Complete SQL Bootcamp
- Understanding APIs and RESTful APIs
Work Samples
This polling average was created using data from the FiveThirtyEight polling github page. The polls were weighted by pollster rating, poll methodology (eg online vs. live phone), and the population that was polled (likely voters, registered voters, all voters). An exponential decay formula was also applied to smooth out the data, the idea being that a raw polling average is overly aggressive at detecting minor and fleeting fluctuations. The exponential decay function eliminates some of this noise and provides a better idea of overall trends.
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This is a visualization comparing the prices listed on the horserace gambling website PredictIt versus candidate polling in the 2020 Democratic primary. The gist of what I’m interested in is how closely PredictIt’s market offers follow candidate polling averages. Keep in mind that the PredictIt market is trying to measure probability of a candidate’s ultimate nomination, not their current polling average.
This is an analysis of 205 emails sent out from July 2019 to September 2020. A detailed explanation of the methodology and dataset can be found in the Discussion portion of this doc.
Takeaways
Weekdays are better than weekends
Emails sent before 9am don’t perform very well
Take advantage of MailChimp’s “Send with TimeWarp,” especially for morning emails
For late afternoons, 5pm is better than 6pm
What’s the best day to send emails?
There is a belief in the Political Twittersphere, especially among Bernie supporters, that phone polls are biased towards candidates who perform better among older constituencies (primarily Biden) due to their reliance on landlines. Live phone methods do tend to undersample younger voters because they rely heavily on landlines. However, most pollsters worth their salt will account for this representation discrepancy through their weighting processes.
To get at the question of differences in polling results based on methodology, I’m going to look at some polling data provided by 538 to create separate plots for the top eight candidates looking at their poll percentages over time and broken out by methodology.
Introduction
Study Design
A study on congressional candidate fundraising and expenditures in the 2018 midterm elections is considered. The variables are: Candidate Contribution (CAND_CONTRIB), Candidate Loans (CAND_LOANS), Other Loans (OTHER_LOANS), Total Contributions from Individuals (TTL_INDIV_CONTRIB), Total Contributions from Political Party Organizations (POL_PTY_CONTRIB), and Contributions from Other Political Organizations (OTHER_POL_CMTE_CONTRIB), all recorded as dollars. Total Spending in the race was also controlled as a proportion of a candidate’s spending out of the total spending of the top two candidates in the race (PROPORTION_SPENT), and the candidate’s incumbency status and party were also included (incumbent, party).
Resume
Senior Associate Director of Annual Giving Marketing Analytics
March 2020 - Present
- Led Annual Fund segmentation strategy, contributing to a 13% increase in revenue and a 6% increase in donor participation
- Created and implemented appeal tracking system to analyze results of all marketing efforts
- Developed dashboards utilizing advanced data visualization to help track campaign performance
- Proposed and created the division’s first donor survey to assess the efficacy of our Loyal Giving Society
- Created ad-hoc analytical reports using R, including email send time optimization and revenue projections
- Developed a system to integrate donor data from three separate sources lacking a shared unique ID
- Led the division’s Email Communications Committee, tasked with conducting tests, analyzing performance, and educating the division on best practices
QC Data Analyst and Partner Manager
July 2018 - February 2020 and January 2015 - January 2016
State Voices, QC Data Analyst and Partner Manager | May 2019 – February 2020
- Responsible for analyzing internal workforce performance and identifying employee opportunities and liabilities
- Created and ran weekly reports summarizing employee performance, including visual data analysis and statistical tests used to help distinguish between problematic behavior and random fluctuations
- Conducted ad-hoc data analysis to investigate anomalies and at client request
State Voices, QC Specialist | July 2018 – November 2018
- Managed relationships with four clients during the 2018 midterm voter registration quality control project
- Designed and built a database system with Google Drive that integrated client voter registration efforts with internal processes
New York State Senate District 58, Finance Director | January 2015 – January 2016
- Directed fundraising program that raised $170,000 by the January filing, more than any other senate challenger
- Built fundraising database using NGP and conducted biographical and financial research on hundreds of prospective donors
- Wrote campaign literature and coordinated Letter to the Editor campaigns
- Developed and executed a rural voter registration test to determine the feasibility of larger registration campaign
Assistant Director, Cornell Annual Funds
January 2017 – December 2017
- Managed Cornell’s mail fundraising program that brought in $12 million as a part of a record-breaking 40 million campaign
- Implemented new Reunion mail program that saved dozens of staff hours while increasing content personalization
- Proposed and managed a multi-channel gift-anniversary solicitation to increase donor retention
- Developed a second-ask solicitation program of current year donors to take advantage of corporate matching fund programs
- Ghost-wrote a Kickoff letter on behalf of the President of Cornell, among multiple other solicitations
- Worked with alumni affairs staff to create targeted social media ads and posts to increase engagement with young alumni
- Conducted two to three A/B tests per mailing to optimize mail and digital solicitation performance
- Analyzed test and campaign performance data, and worked with vendors and internal partners to improve data collection
- Coordinated with Phone and Digital program managers to create overarching segmentation and solicitation strategy
- Acted as a consultant to staff members from 22 different colleges and departments on marketing and fundraising
Annual Fund Development Assistant
January 2016 – January 2017'
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Responsible for coordinating all digital and mail solicitations for the IC Annual Fund, 100% of which hit their targeted drop date
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Led solicitation production team of seven people to execute digital and direct mail solicitations
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Instituted weekly check-in meetings and progress reports to ensure efficient and high-quality project completion
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Led task force to institute the first interactive Fill the Fountains calendar year-end digital solicitation
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Tracked performance and performed in-depth analysis of all direct mail and email solicitations
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Developed models to predict yearly direct mail and email performance as well as multi-year division-wide donor projections
Campus Vote Organizer at Linn-Benton Community College
March 2014 – November 2014
- Registered over 4000 students to vote compared to 2300 during the 2012 presidential campaign
- Scheduled and completed 566 class presentations, 140 person-to-person registration hours, and 5647 voter education contacts
- Part of a record statewide campaign that registered over 55,000 students to vote
- Worked with the student government, diversity centers, student groups, and instructors to create a team of 20 active volunteers
- Worked with student leaders to transition LBCC into a dues-paying member campus of the Oregon Student Association
- Proposed and led the Debate Steering Committee that worked with students from two colleges to host a candidates forum that attracted over 50 attendees
- Led weekly Vote Team meetings and bi-weekly training sessions for new volunteers